A Low-Carbon Road Map for the Power Sector in the Republic of Uzbekistan

( EBRD:Uzbekistan, 2019 - 2020, Client: EBRD, Budget: 397,000 EUR )

Title:A Low-Carbon Road Map for the Power Sector in the Republic of Uzbekistan

Budget:397,000 EUR


Dates: September, 2019 - September, 2020

Partner: Navigant (UK) and Tractebel Engineering (Italy and Germany)


The overall aim of the assignment is to define a low-carbon roadmap for the electricity generation sector in Uzbekistan through the modelling of the country''s energy system and its evolution scenarios until 2050. Up to three scenarios could be considered each reflecting an increased level of ambition in terms of sector''s GHG emissions. It is anticipated that one scenario will capture the current and planned policies in the country and model the possible evolution of the sector under a "business as usual" (BAU) type of technological development and penetration of low carbon generation sources (new build renewables or high efficiency thermal plants to displace older/less efficient existing assets). The other scenarios will progressively try to explore the possible evolution of the sector under more aggressive growth of renewables, high efficiency thermal plants, improved grid flexibility and storage. The assignment, by critically analysing the different scenarios, will result in the development of a set of policy and technology recommendations to help understand the possible contribution of the sector towards the country''s NDC targets, help to identify the possible contribution of the sector for new targets post-2030 and provide clear indications about the priorities of investment and sustainable development for the sector towards a substantial decarbonisation in the mid to long- term future.

Provide a brief overview of the Uzbekistan legal framework and policy landscape for the energy sector as well as regarding climate mitigationIdentify key stakeholders of Uzbekistan''s power sector, both in the public and private sectorExplain what are the existing governance structure (including local governance) and the institutional capacity for the power sectorReview the existing models that have been developed for Central Asia and Uzbekistan''s GHG/CO2 emissions pathways and compare the differencesMap out all the existing data bases/information platforms related to Uzbekistan''s power sectorDevelop a GHG and policy interaction modelIdentify consolidated set of scenarios, with increasing level of ambition, and use these as inputs to model the GHG emissions of Uzbekistan up to 2050Suggest the optimal power generation mix for Uzbekistan to reach its long-term emissions reductions target in each scenarioExplain what would be the implications of BAU scenario for Uzbekistan in the medium to long-termPropose a roadmap consisting of a set of recommendations on what policies, technologies and legislative framework and regulations, institutional arrangements/capacity building would lead the decarbonisation of the power sector in UzbekistanDefine the investments necessary, including the types of investment and estimated sizes of capital required, to deliver policies and adopt such technologies

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